June 10, 2011 – Tomorrow night, UFC 131 will take place live from the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia. Headlined by two heavyweight contenders facing off in a title eliminator match in Carwin vs. dos Santos, the event will also feature the featherweight debut of Kenny Florian along with a middleweight showdown pitting the rising “Philippine Wrecking Machine” Mark Muñoz taking on world-class BJJ black belt Demian Maia.
There are also local connections aplenty as UFC 131 also features appearances by two tough Texans in Yves Edwards and Aaron Rosa along with two men with Texas connections in Fightville star Dustin Poirier and former Texas state boxing champion James Head of nearby Oklahoma.
Let’s take a look at the entire card top-to-bottom and break these fights down.
UFC 131 – Preview and Predictions – Main Card (Pay-Per-View)
Heavyweight – Shane Carwin (12-1) vs Junior dos Santos (12-1)
Coming off this season’s Ultimate Fighter show, Junior dos Santos was originally set to take on Brock Lesnar before an unfortunate relapse with diverticulitis put the former UFC champion back on the shelf. Now Shane Carwin has stepped in to face the Brazilian.
As a heavy-handed boxer that is also a brown belt in in Brazilian jiu jitsu under the Nogueira brothers, Junior dos Santos is said to be as well-rounded a fighter as any. Training with the Black House team, he’s also got strong wrestlers like Mark Muñoz teaching him along with karate master Lyoto Machida. The issue in evaluating him is that nobody has seen those other skill sets with him knocking out everyone from Gabriel Gonzaga and Fabricio Werdum to Gilbert Yvel and CroCop.
His opponent Shane Carwin stepped up on late notice after Lesnar’s injury, coming back from his own back surgery to compete on this card. A former national wrestling champion, Carwin himself is known more for his knockout skills than his grappling. Like his opponent, he’s also taken out Gabriel Gonzaga via KO along with other guys like Frank Mir.
The main issue here is whether Carwin has improved his cardio enough to stand a chance if this fight goes into deep water. In his most recent outing against Lesnar, Carwin’s body gave up on him in the second round despite him convincingly winning the first. Coming off surgery probably hasn’t helped increase the capacity in his gas tank but who know’s.
Prediction – Will anybody object if we say that this fight will end in a KO/TKO? Seriously, these guys hit so hard that if either one has the potential to end the night with one punch. The most likely finish goes to the Brazilian though. Junior dos Santos via TKO in the second round.
Featherweight – Kenny Florian (14-5) vs Diego Nunes (16-1)
In the UFC’s pre-fight countdown, trainer Firas Zahabi said that Kenny Florian’s biggest opponent in this fight would be the weight cut and not Diego Nunes. It’s almost flabbergasting to consider the fact that the 35-year-old Bostonian made his UFC debut forty-pounds away as a middleweight on the Ultimate Fighter, gradually cutting down since. It will be very interesting to see how this latest cut affects his performance.
“Who wants to see fights finished? I finish fights,” Kenny Florian once remarked. As an exciting fighter with razor sharp submission kills and even sharper elbows, Ken-Flo can finish a fight in many different ways including doctor stoppages. No doubt he’ll be going for the kill in this one so he can move on a blockbuster fight with 145 champion José Aldo.
Depite Florian’s pedigree, his opponent shouldn’t be taken lightly. Diego Nunes of Nova União is walking into this fight with a 16-1 record and has won his last three including his last bout against another former champion in Mike Brown. The only knock on him is that he’s not a finisher like his UFC 131 opponent, going to a decision in his last six fights.
Prediction – The weight cut is an issue but I think Florian knows what his body is capable of by now. He certainly knows what its capable of in the cage and will look to utilize his size and technical striking advantage to wear down Nunes en route to a fight-ending submission.
Heavyweight – Jon Olav Einemo (6-1) vs. Dave Herman (20-2)
A lot of people haven’t heard of these guys but this could be a sleeper fight.
The Norwegian Jon Olav Einamo hasn’t fought MMA n five years but he was a stalwart at the ADCC back in the day, winning his weight class in 2003. In fact, he’s the only man to defeat multiple-time BJJ champion Roger Gracie in ADCC competition. That in itself counts for a lot right there. He also trains with Golden Glory and the massive Alistair Overeem so there’s no doubt he’s been tested thoroughly in practice
As for Dave Herman, he is a 26-year-old prospect with a 20-2 record and success at Bellator and in Japan. His career has in many ways been stalled in recent years due to contractual issues but he’s got the talent to make some moves.
Prediction – As a BJJ black belt, Einamo’s grappling pedigree is impressive but he’ll be facing a well-rounded MMA fighter who’s at least fought three times a year for the last couple. Facing ring rust and a UFC debut, it’ll be tough for Einemo to overcome Herman’s youth and experience. Look for “Pee Wee” to get back on track with this one via decision.
Middleweight – Demian Maia (14-2) vs Mark Muñoz (10-2)
It’s been debated that Demian Maia could be the best jiu-jitsu practitioner in mixed martial arts today. After accomplishing a lifetime’s worth of accollades in sport grappling, Maia converted over to MMA full-time with the UFC in 2007 and has utilized his submission prowess to take out guys like Chael Sonnen and Kendall Grove. He catches his opponents very well, especially in transition.
Speaking of transitions, his opponent Mark Muñoz also made the transition into MMA full-time in 2007 after a standout All-American career wrestling in college for Oklahoma State University. He has blended that wrestling skill set with his tremendous core strength to create some of the most ferocious ground and pound in the UFC.
The key in this fight will be whether Muñoz is able to posture up well enough to deliver some meaningful shots on Maia if it does get to the ground. If it doesn’t, the fight could be anyone’s game as both guys have been working hard to showcase their improved striking as well.
Prediction – When you have two world-class grapplers facing off, sometimes off things happen and what you get is an awkward striking match. I’m not sure it that will happen in this one but if it does, look for Muñoz to be the stronger striker and edge out the fight via a deciding takedown or two.
Lightweight – Donald Cerrone (14-3-1) vs. Vagner Rocha (16-1)
Vagner Rocha is a debuting UFC fighter fresh off the heels of an impressive grappling performance at ADCC trials in the northeast a few months back. As a Pablo Popovitch-trained black belt, Rocha has succeeded in several appearances on the undercards of Bellator and Strikeforce primarily by utilizing that grappling skill set.
As for Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, well he’s been a little more well-rounded. The New Mexican has proven himself in dominant performances against Jamie Varner by using his Muay Thai skills to win there while also proving to be proficient on the ground with his last two fights ending via submission.
Prediction – Donald Cerrone is well-rounded and fairly-experienced enough to not get caught in a submission battle. He’s also got the striking skills and takedown defense to keep Rocha out of his element.
UFC 131 – Preview and Predictions – Preliminary Card (SPIKE TV)
Lightweight – Yves Edwards (40-16-1) vs. Sam Stout (16-6-1)
155 lbs.: Yves “Thugjitsu Master” Edwards (40-16-1) vs. Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout (16-6-1)
The first of the two Texas fighters on this card, “Thugjitsu Master” Yves Edwards is still the people’s champion in the lightweight division. After all, he took out Josh Thompson with one of the most famous maneuvers in MMA history, flying through the air to land that vicious head kick at UFC 49. All these years later, Yves is still hanging around and looking to climb back up that ladder. He is on a three-fight win streak and is coming off ‘Fight of the Night’ and ‘Submission of the Night’ honors in choking out TUF-finalist Cody McKenzie so don’t ever count him out.
Yves will be taking on dangerous Canadian kickboxer Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout. As a striker, Stout has proven himself to be very technical on his feet and has beaten guys like Joe Lauzon. He too has been up and down as of late and looking for a bit more consistency by beating Edwards.
Prediction – This bout has sleeper potential to be a ‘Fight of the Night’ with both guys possessing the striking skills to turn this one into a barnburner. It should be a scrappy fight but I think Yves is better in every are and should prove himself to be the stronger fighter throughout the course of the bout. Look for Yves to take a decision in this one.
Middleweight – Jesse Bongfeldt (15-4-1) vs. Chris Weidman (5-0)
If nothing else, this fight will at least be the battle of the nicknames with Jesse “Water” Bongfeldt taking on Chris “All American” Weidman.
Both these guys possess extraordinary grappling skills and the fight should be expected to prove which of these fighters is the stronger on the mat. Bongfeldt has got the more experience of the two, having beaten UFC vets T.J. Grant and Sean Piersen prior to making it into the UFC.
As for Chris Weidman, he recently made his UFC debut on short notice against Alessio Sakara, winning the fight with hardly any time to prepare. A student of Matt Serra, Chris holds wrestling wins over guys like Phil Davis and Ryan Bader so look for him to be tough to handle on this mats for any fighter.
Prediction – This one will likely turn into a wrestling battle if instincts rule both men in this match. When that happens, look for Weidman to show significant improvement since his last fight and dominate this one from start to finish. Weidman via decision.
UFC 131 – Preview and Predictions –Preliminary Card (Facebook/YouTube)
Featherwight – Dustin Poirier (9-1) vs. Jason Young (8-3)
As a veteran of the WEC promotion, Dustin “Diamond” Poirier put the world on notice by stepping in and defeating then-number-one contender Josh Grispi during his last trip to the octagon in his featherweight debut. His opponent Jason Young is actually stepping in on later notice as a replacement to Rani Yahya. The English fighter seems to be a solid journeyman but does not have the potential of the Louisianan.
Prediction: Dustin Poirier via TKO.
Light Heavyweight – Mike Massenzio (12-4) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (25-11-1)
Krzysztof Soszynski has through two potential opponents for this card with the third time being a charm after Anthony Perosh and Igor Pokrajac couldn’t make it to the dance due to injury. Soszynski is an entertaining fighter with several ‘submission of the night’ honors to go along with a fight-of-the-night performance against Stephen Bonnar. He will be taking on a blown-up middleweight in Mike Massenzio for this fight. Other than a quick win over Drew McFedries in his UFC debut, Massenzio hasn’t really shown anything that says he’ll be able to keep up with the “The Polish Experiment.”
Prediction – Krzysztof Soszynski via submission
Featherweight – Darren Elkins (11-2) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (12-9-1)
Darren Ekins may be known best for being the first guy to lose to Gold Team fighter Charles “do Bronx” Oliveira back in the Brazilian’s octagon debut. His other claim to fame is scoring a win over Duane “Bang” Ludwig due to a freak injury so this will be his first real chance to show he can do something in the UFC. His opponent, Michihiro Omigawa is a very experiences fighter who’s beaten the likes of L.C. Davis, Nam Phan, and Marlon Sando, and Hatsu Hioki prior to his most recent loss to Team Alpha Male’s Chad Mendes. Omigawa is seeking his first UFC win in this fight and has a chance to back up the claims that he is one of the top featherweights on the planet.
Prediction – Michihiro Omigawa via submission
Heavyweight – Joey “The Mexicutioner” Beltran (12-5) vs. Aaron Rosa (16-3)
As San Antonio-based fighter Aaron Rosa said in his pre-fight interview, Joey “The Mexicutioner” Beltran is as tough as they come. The scrappy Mexican is coming off some entertaining brawls with Matt Mitrione and Pat Barry and is one of those fighters that is always looking for the knockout. Rosa is coming off a win against TUF veteran Abe Wagner and will look to outbox his opponent to get the win in this fight,
Prediction – Aaron Rosa via decision.
Middleweight – James Head (7-1) vs. Nick “The Promise” Ring (11-0)
This past February, James Head earned his UFC shot with a win over former TUF’er Gerald Harris. An accomplished wrestler and boxer training with Rafael Lovato’s BJJ in Oklahoma City, Head will be taking on the flamboyant Canadian Nick Ring. With an 11-0 record, Ring has been thought of as a promising prospect despite being slowed by injuries. He made his UFC debut at UFC 127 scoring a decision against DEEP middleweight champion Riki Fukuda and is looking to score another the debuting head.
Prediction – James Head via decision
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